One of the nation’s most closely watched election forecasters has upgraded Democrats’ chances in Florida’s 2026 governor’s race, shifting the contest from “Safe Republican” to “Likely Republican” while continuing to view Republican Byron Donalds as the clear favorite over Democrat David Jolly.
The updated rating, released Thursday by Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics, reflects a more competitive political environment in Florida while stopping well short of declaring the race a toss-up.
The change marks Florida’s first upward rating shift for Democrats by Sabato’s Crystal Ball during the 2026 gubernatorial campaign, though analysts continue to view a Republican victory as the most likely outcome.
Florida has not elected a Democratic governor since Lawton Chiles won reelection in 1994, and Republicans have controlled the Governor’s Mansion for more than a quarter-century. Still, Sabato’s analysts concluded that recent polling and the dynamics of an open-seat election justify moving Florida into a slightly more competitive category.
Why the Rating Changed
Sabato’s Crystal Ball cited a recent University of North Florida Public Opinion Research Lab (UNF PORL) survey showing Donalds leading Jolly 46% to 41%, while noting that several recent public polls have produced relatively competitive margins.
The publication wrote that Florida’s open governor’s race, combined with consistently closer polling than previously expected, warranted revising the state’s rating.
“We would not call Florida truly competitive. But an open seat and relatively close polling are enough to move this off Safe Republican and into Likely Republican.”
The Crystal Ball also pointed to Donalds’ repeated calls for debates with Jolly, arguing that candidates with comfortable leads do not typically push aggressively for debates.
Polling Still Favors Donalds
Although the rating change represents an improved outlook for Democrats, recent polling continues to favor Donalds.
According to the latest polling average compiled by 270toWin, Donalds has led nearly every publicly released general-election survey this year, although several recent polls show Jolly running closer than previous Democratic gubernatorial nominees.
The latest UNF survey is consistent with that broader trend, suggesting Republicans remain favored while Democrats have narrowed the gap compared to previous election cycles.
For Republicans, the race represents an opportunity to extend their dominance in statewide elections. For Democrats, Jolly’s candidacy has produced a more competitive environment than many national analysts anticipated earlier this year.
Campaigns Respond
Jolly’s campaign welcomed the revised rating, describing it as validation that the race is becoming more competitive.
Senior Advisor Mark Riddle argued the rating change reflects growing momentum for Democrats and suggested Donalds’ repeated calls for debates demonstrate Republicans recognize the race is tightening.
Donalds’ campaign dismissed Sabato’s revised assessment.
Chief Strategist Ryan Smith said Florida remains a reliably Republican state and predicted Donalds will be elected Florida’s next governor.
What ‘Likely Republican’ Means
Sabato’s Crystal Ball is among the nation’s most respected nonpartisan election forecasting publications and is closely followed by campaigns, donors, political strategists and national media.
A “Safe Republican” rating generally indicates a race where the Republican nominee is overwhelmingly favored.
A “Likely Republican” rating still favors the GOP but acknowledges that changing political conditions, competitive polling or other campaign developments have made the race more competitive than previously believed.
While Florida remains one of the Republican Party’s strongest statewide battlegrounds, the revised rating suggests national analysts believe Democrats have become more competitive than they appeared at the beginning of the 2026 campaign.
Related Coverage
- Another Poll Shows Massive Lead for Byron Donalds in GOP Primary Race
- Florida Elections 2026: Candidates, Polls, Endorsements & Election News
- Byron Donalds Defends Debate Decision, Outlines Housing Plan During Hialeah Campaign Stop
- David Jolly Responds to Donalds’ Debate Challenge
Primary Sources
- Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball – Three Gubernatorial Rating Changes
- University of North Florida Public Opinion Research Lab – Poll Releases
- 270toWin – Florida Governor Polling Average
- Byron Donalds for Governor Campaign
- David Jolly for Governor Campaign
