Republican Rep. Cory Mills holds an early lead in the GOP primary for Florida’s 7th Congressional District, according to a new poll that also reveals considerable uncertainty among voters.
The St. Pete Polls survey, conducted for Florida Politics, found Mills receiving 27% support among voters who said they planned to participate in the four-candidate Republican primary. Former Orlando television anchor Ryan Elijah followed with 14%.
The survey of 304 likely Republican primary voters was conducted Aug. 3–4 by phone and text and has a margin of error of ±5.6 percentage points
The most consequential figure, however, may be the 41% of likely voters who remain undecided. With the primary scheduled for Aug. 18, the large uncommitted bloc gives Mills’ challengers an opportunity to reshape the contest during its closing stretch.
Businesswoman Sarah Ulrich and Michael Johnson are also competing for the Republican nomination.
Mills is seeking a third term in Congress after first winning the Central Florida seat in 2022. He secured reelection in 2024 with 56.5% of the vote and has received President Donald Trump’s endorsement in the current primary.
Despite those advantages, Mills enters the election under significant scrutiny. The House Ethics Committee is investigating allegations involving his financial disclosures, campaign finances and personal conduct. The Justice Department is also reportedly examining matters involving his finances, although the scope and status of that investigation remain unclear.
Mills has denied wrongdoing. He has said he was unaware of a Justice Department investigation and would cooperate if contacted, while characterizing the allegations against him as politically motivated.
Elijah has presented himself as a conservative alternative who could protect the Republican-leaning district in November. His candidacy received a boost Wednesday when Florida Republican Reps. Anna Paulina Luna and Mike Haridopolos endorsed him over their House colleague.
The endorsements suggest that some Florida Republicans are increasingly willing to break with the incumbent. Elijah has also attracted support from several Central Florida political and community figures while building a campaign organization capable of competing during the final weeks.
Still, the poll confirms that Mills retains the clearest base of support in the divided field. Elijah would need to consolidate voters seeking an alternative to the incumbent while making substantial gains among those who have yet to choose a candidate.
The survey offers only a snapshot of a fluid contest. District-level primary polling can be especially unpredictable because turnout is typically lower than in general elections and identifying the voters most likely to participate can be difficult.
For now, Mills is the front-runner—but with fewer than three in 10 likely voters supporting him and more than four in 10 undecided, the Republican nomination remains unsettled.
Related coverage
- Cory Mills Agrees to Debate Republican Challengers in Florida’s CD-7 Primary
- Cory Mills Denies Reports of DOJ Investigation as House Ethics Probe Continues
- Two Central Florida Sheriffs Back Ryan Elijah Against Cory Mills
- Tom Wright Endorses Ryan Elijah in GOP Primary Challenge to Cory Mills
