MIAMI — Democrat Eliott Rodríguez and Republican U.S. Rep. María Elvira Salazar are deadlocked in Florida’s 27th Congressional District, according to a new internal poll that suggests the Miami-Dade race could be considerably more competitive heading into the Nov. 3 general election.
The Bendixen & Amandi International survey, conducted for Rodríguez’s campaign, found Rodríguez and Salazar tied at 45% each after undecided voters were asked which candidate they leaned toward.
The poll surveyed 600 likely voters from Aug. 25 through Aug. 30.
The results represent a potentially significant development in a South Florida district that Salazar carried by more than 20 percentage points in the previous election.
But the findings should be viewed with an important caveat: Bendixen & Amandi works for the Rodríguez campaign, making this an internal campaign poll rather than an independent public survey. Internal polling can provide useful information about a race but should not be treated as independently confirmed evidence that the contest is tied.
Rodríguez moves ahead after candidate descriptions
The poll also tested how voters responded after hearing descriptions of both candidates and their records.
After respondents received that additional information, Rodríguez led Salazar 47% to 40%, according to the results released by his campaign.
Fernand Amandi, principal at Bendixen & Amandi International, characterized the district as a “pure toss-up” based on the firm’s findings.
The Florida Pundit is treating that characterization as the pollster’s assessment rather than an independent rating of the race.
Independent election forecasting remains more favorable to Salazar. One current model, Call the Map, rates the district Lean Republican and projects a roughly five-point Republican advantage, while acknowledging a range of outcomes that includes a Democratic victory.
A dramatic shift from 2024
The competitiveness suggested by the new survey would represent a major change from two years ago.
Salazar won the district by approximately 20 percentage points in 2024. Rodríguez is now attempting to flip the South Florida seat after winning the Democratic nomination in August.
Rodríguez, a longtime South Florida television journalist, defeated former federal prosecutor Robin Peguero in the Democratic primary.
Salazar easily secured the Republican nomination, receiving about 81% of the Republican primary vote.
The two candidates are now competing for a district centered in Miami-Dade County that includes portions of Miami, Coral Gables, Kendall, Key Biscayne and Pinecrest.
Earlier polling also showed a competitive race
The new Rodríguez campaign poll is not the first survey this year to suggest Salazar could face a closer contest than in previous elections.
A March Blueprint Polling survey had Salazar leading Rodríguez 46% to 43% among 451 registered voters. That survey was identified as Democratic-sponsored.
Taken together, the surveys provide evidence that Democrats see an opportunity in the district, but the limited number of publicly available polls makes it difficult to determine precisely where the race stands.
The latest Bendixen & Amandi poll therefore represents an important data point rather than definitive proof that the candidates are tied.
Two familiar Miami television faces
The general election also presents South Florida voters with an unusual matchup between two candidates with long careers in television journalism.
Rodríguez spent decades as a prominent Miami television anchor before entering politics.
Salazar likewise worked for years in Spanish-language television journalism before winning election to Congress.
Rodríguez formally qualified as the Democratic candidate for District 27 earlier this year, according to Florida Division of Elections records.
The candidates have already clashed over debates. Rodríguez previously challenged Salazar to participate in three general-election debates — two in English and one in Spanish — as both campaigns compete for voters in one of Florida’s most closely watched South Florida congressional districts.
With seven weeks remaining before Election Day, the new poll gives Democrats fresh ammunition for arguing that a seat Republicans won decisively just two years ago is now in play.
Whether independent polling confirms that assessment will be one of the key questions surrounding Florida’s 27th Congressional District as Nov. 3 approaches.
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