TALLAHASSEE, Fla. — A new internal poll commissioned by Republican gubernatorial candidate Jay Collins shows the lieutenant governor capturing 30% support against frontrunner Byron Donalds, a result sharply different from recent public polling averages that place Collins near 10%.
The campaign survey still shows Donalds leading by double digits. Its ballot test places Donalds at 46%, Collins at 30%, James Fishback at 9.8%, Paul Renner at 5.9% and Bobby Williams at 5%, with the remaining candidates receiving less than 1% each.
Collins’ campaign characterized the results as evidence that the race is consolidating around two candidates and that Collins is gaining support shortly before Florida’s Aug. 18 Republican primary.
What the Collins campaign poll found
The survey was conducted July 28–29 by David Jay Wolfson among 988 likely Florida Republican primary voters using an MMS text-to-web methodology.
According to the released methodology, the poll carries a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. Results were adjusted by age, gender, race and ethnicity, religion and media market.
Collins campaign manager Ted Veerman said the lieutenant governor was “surging at the exact right moment” and argued that the remaining candidates had become secondary factors in the race.
The campaign also said 40.8% of respondents who remained undecided leaned toward Collins, compared with 30.3% who leaned toward Donalds. However, the publicly available summary does not identify the size of that subgroup or provide the complete question wording.
The full questionnaire, question order and detailed crosstabs have not been publicly located. Those records would help determine how respondents were selected, how likely voters were identified and whether any persuasive information was presented before follow-up questions.
Public polling shows a much wider Donalds lead
The Collins result diverges substantially from other recent surveys of the Republican primary.
A Cygnal poll conducted July 12–13 among 500 likely Republican primary voters showed Donalds at 43%, Fishback at 12%, Collins at 11% and Renner at 2%. Thirty-one percent were undecided, and the survey reported a margin of error of 4.38 percentage points.
A Tyson Group survey of 600 likely Republican primary voters placed Donalds at 48%, Collins at 9%, Fishback at 8% and Renner at 4%, with a 4-point margin of error.
The current 270toWin average of those two polls places Donalds at 45.5%, Collins and Fishback at 10% each, and Renner at 3%.
RealClearPolling’s broader average shows Donalds at 48.3%, Fishback at 9.3%, Collins at 8.3% and Renner at 2.8%.
That means Collins’ internal poll places his support approximately 20 percentage points above the 270toWin average and nearly 22 points above the RealClearPolling average.
The difference is considerably larger than the reported margins of error. However, margins of error do not account for every possible source of polling variation, including differences in voter-screening models, weighting, response rates, question wording and the treatment of undecided voters.
Internal polling requires additional context
A campaign’s sponsorship does not automatically make a poll inaccurate. Campaigns routinely conduct private research to measure voter attitudes, test messages and determine where to spend advertising money.
When campaigns release selected findings publicly, however, the sponsorship and available methodology are important context. Campaigns generally publish results that support their strategic argument, while unfavorable internal findings may remain private.
The Collins campaign’s interpretation that the primary has become a two-person race is also not established by the broader polling record. Recent public surveys continue to show Donalds maintaining a commanding advantage while Collins and Fishback compete for a distant second place.
Even in Collins’ survey, Donalds holds a 16-point lead—well outside the poll’s stated margin of error.
Primary enters its final stretch
The poll arrives as Collins and other Republican candidates continue pressuring Donalds to participate in a primary debate. Donalds has rejected those calls and said he wants to debate the eventual Democratic nominee instead.
The primary has also been shaped by a failed legal challenge seeking to remove Fishback from the ballot. A Leon County judge ruled that Collins’ campaign failed to prove Fishback had abandoned his Florida residency.
Another fully transparent survey conducted after the late-July campaign advertising and candidate debate would help determine whether Collins has experienced a genuine surge or whether his internal result is an outlier.
Florida Republicans will make the final determination in the Aug. 18 primary.
Related Coverage
• Byron Donalds Rejects Calls for a Florida Republican Primary Debate
• After Florida Ballot Win, James Fishback Demands Jay Collins Resign
• Judge Rules James Fishback Can Remain on Republican Governor Primary Ballot
• Florida Elections 2026 Coverage
Sources
• Jay Collins campaign poll announcement
• Forrest Saunders — Poll results and released methodology
• Cygnal — Florida Republican primary survey
• 270toWin — Florida governor polling average
• RealClearPolling — Florida Republican primary average
