Republican Rep. Cory Mills holds a narrow lead over challenger Ryan Elijah in Florida’s 7th Congressional District Republican primary, but a new poll shows a massive bloc of undecided voters could determine the outcome as the race enters its final stretch.
A Victory Insights survey released Friday found Mills with 28.3% support, compared with 22% for Elijah, giving the incumbent a 6.3-percentage-point advantage.
Sarah Ulrich received 4.8%, while Michael Johnson registered 3.4%.
But the largest group in the poll was not backing any candidate: 41.5% of likely Republican primary voters remain undecided.
The results provide another indication that Mills, despite maintaining the lead, has yet to consolidate Republican voters ahead of the Aug. 18 primary.
The new numbers come days after Mills defended his record during a contentious CD-7 Republican debate, where Elijah, Ulrich and Johnson repeatedly challenged the incumbent over ethics concerns, reports of a Justice Department investigation, campaign finances and personal controversies.
Elijah emerges as Mills’ primary challenger
Victory Insights described Elijah as Mills’ principal challenger and said Republican opposition to the incumbent has increasingly consolidated behind him.
Elijah’s campaign has built momentum through a series of endorsements. In July, state Sen. Tom Wright endorsed Elijah in his Republican primary challenge to Mills, saying the former television news anchor had the experience and leadership needed to represent the district.
Elijah has also secured endorsements from Seminole County Sheriff Dennis Lemma and Volusia County Sheriff Mike Chitwood as he attempts to unseat the two-term congressman.
The poll nevertheless shows Elijah still has ground to make up.
Mills remains ahead by 6.3 percentage points, while Ulrich and Johnson remain in the single digits. But Victory Insights argues Elijah has greater potential to expand his support among undecided voters.
Undecided voters pose challenge for Mills
The pollster pointed to Mills’ standing among voters who have not yet selected a candidate as a potential vulnerability.
Among undecided voters, 35% held a negative opinion of Mills compared with 14% who viewed him positively, according to Victory Insights.
The firm said Elijah still needs to make gains before overtaking Mills but concluded that he has “far more room to grow” than the incumbent among voters who remain uncommitted.
Victory Insights went further in its overall assessment of the contest, rating CD-7 “Lean — Ryan Elijah” despite Mills currently leading the poll’s ballot test.
That distinction is significant: the poll itself does not show Elijah leading. Rather, the firm’s race rating reflects its analysis of Mills’ relatively low level of support as an incumbent, Elijah’s position as the leading alternative and the unusually large undecided electorate.
Another warning sign for Mills
The Victory Insights findings follow another recent poll showing Mills ahead but facing an unsettled electorate.
Earlier this week, a separate poll showed Mills holding a double-digit lead in the Republican primary, while also finding a substantial share of voters had yet to settle on a candidate.
Because the two surveys were conducted by different pollsters, their results are separate snapshots of the race rather than a direct measure of movement from one poll to the next.
The latest survey nevertheless reinforces a central question hanging over the final days of the race: whether Mills can consolidate enough undecided Republicans to withstand Elijah’s challenge.
Mills has faced months of scrutiny surrounding personal and political controversies, including a House Ethics Committee investigation and reports concerning a Justice Department inquiry.
The congressman has denied wrongdoing and has characterized reports about the Justice Department investigation as politically motivated.
Poll surveyed six Florida battleground districts
Victory Insights surveyed 1,200 likely Republican primary voters across six Florida congressional districts from Aug. 4 through Aug. 6.
The survey used a combination of text-to-web and interactive voice response polling. Victory Insights said the poll was not commissioned by any candidate or committee and was released publicly on Aug. 7.
The 1,200-voter figure represents respondents surveyed across the six congressional districts rather than the CD-7 sample alone. The publicly released report does not specify a separate CD-7 sample size or margin of error.
The report examined Republican primaries in Florida’s 2nd, 7th, 9th, 14th, 19th and 22nd congressional districts.
Victory Insights characterized several of those contests as highly competitive, rating CD-9, CD-19 and CD-22 as toss-ups while giving Elijah the advantage in its analytical rating of CD-7.
With early voting underway and the Aug. 18 primary approaching, the 41.5% undecided share leaves considerable room for movement in the final days of the CD-7 contest.
Related Coverage
- Cory Mills Defends Record Amid Personal Attacks at Heated CD-7 Republican Debate
- New Poll Gives Cory Mills Lead in Unsettled Florida GOP Primary
- Sheriffs Endorse Ryan Elijah in Republican Challenge to Cory Mills
- Tom Wright Endorses Ryan Elijah in Florida CD-7 Republican Primary
