A new statewide survey suggests Democrat David Jolly holds an early advantage over Republican Byron Donalds in Florida’s 2026 governor’s race, but questions about the poll’s methodology are already fueling skepticism among political observers.
The survey, conducted by Change Research for Freedom Project USA, found Jolly leading Donalds 47% to 42% among registered voters. Among respondents classified as likely voters, Jolly’s lead expanded slightly.
At first glance, the findings appear significant in a state that has trended Republican in recent election cycles. However, a closer examination of the poll reveals several methodological choices that could influence the outcome.
To the pollster’s credit, the survey provides a detailed explanation of its methodology. Change Research disclosed its client, weighting procedures, respondent recruitment methods, and statistical calculations. The sample size of 1,273 respondents is generally considered sufficient for a statewide survey, and weighting was applied using demographic and geographic variables intended to reflect Florida’s electorate.
Yet several aspects of the poll have drawn scrutiny.
One of the biggest concerns involves respondent recruitment. Rather than relying entirely on traditional probability-based sampling, portions of the survey relied on respondents recruited through online advertising and text messaging. Critics argue that opt-in surveys can attract politically engaged participants who may not accurately represent the broader electorate.
Another point of debate is the poll’s use of an “informed ballot test.”
Instead of simply asking voters which candidate they would support if the election were held today, respondents were first shown candidate descriptions and photographs before being asked their preference.
Pollsters defended the approach by arguing that both candidates remain relatively unknown to many voters statewide. Critics counter that providing narratives before the ballot question can influence responses and make it more difficult to measure where the race currently stands.
The wording itself has also generated discussion. Observers noted differences in the length and framing of the candidate descriptions, raising questions about whether one candidate may have received a more favorable introduction than the other.
Language accessibility is another issue cited by critics. The survey was conducted only in English despite Florida’s large Spanish-speaking population, particularly in South Florida and Central Florida.
The survey also relied heavily on self-reported information, including voter likelihood and party affiliation. Some election analysts argue that voter-file data often provides a more reliable measure of turnout history and partisan registration than self-identification alone.
Why It Matters
Polls often shape media narratives, donor activity, campaign strategy, and voter perceptions long before ballots are cast.
While the Change Research survey suggests Democrats may see an opportunity in Florida’s governor’s race, the debate surrounding the poll highlights a broader reality: methodology can be just as important as the topline numbers.
As additional surveys are released in the coming months, political observers will likely compare whether similar trends appear across polls using different sampling methods and ballot designs.
What’s Next
Florida’s governor’s race remains in its early stages, and both Jolly and Donalds are expected to continue building statewide name recognition.
Future polling may provide a clearer picture of the race, particularly surveys that include traditional ballot tests and different sampling approaches.
Until then, this poll is likely to generate as much discussion about methodology as it does about the candidates themselves.
