NAPLES, Fla. — A new poll shows Catalina Lauf surging into a virtual tie with Southwest Florida businessman Jim Schwartzel in the crowded Republican primary for Florida’s 19th Congressional District, dramatically reshaping the race with just days remaining before the Aug. 18 election.
The Victory Insights survey was conducted Aug. 4–6 among likely Republican primary voters, according to polling data compiled by FiftyPlusOne.
Former Illinois state Sen. Jim Oberweis followed with 11.7%, while former New York Congressman Chris Collins received 8%, former North Carolina Congressman Madison Cawthorn received 6% and Ola Hawatmeh received 4%.
About 25% of voters remain undecided, leaving a substantial bloc potentially capable of determining the Republican nominee during the final stretch of the campaign.
Lauf Makes Major Move Since June
The most significant development in the new poll may be Lauf’s rise.
A previous Victory Insights survey conducted in June placed Schwartzel at 12.8% and Oberweis at 11.9%, while Lauf registered just 4.9%.
At the time, nearly 54% of Republican primary voters were undecided.
The latest results put Lauf at 18.9%, an increase of roughly 14 percentage points since the earlier survey, while Schwartzel has risen more than six points.
The undecided share has simultaneously fallen from roughly 54% to 25%, suggesting Republican voters are beginning to settle on candidates as Election Day approaches.
The movement has transformed what was previously a highly fragmented contest into a race with two candidates separating themselves from much of the field — although the large remaining undecided vote means the outcome remains far from settled.
Crowded Race to Replace Byron Donalds
The Republican candidates are competing to succeed U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds, who is leaving the congressional seat while running for Florida governor.
Florida’s 19th Congressional District covers much of Southwest Florida, including portions of Lee and Collier counties.
The open seat attracted one of Florida’s most crowded Republican congressional primaries, drawing candidates with significant financial resources, previous political experience and national profiles.
Schwartzel is president of Sun Broadcasting and has deep ties to Southwest Florida. His campaign has emphasized his local roots and business experience.
Lauf previously served as an adviser in the U.S. Department of Commerce during the first Trump administration and previously ran for Congress in Illinois before entering the Southwest Florida contest.
Oberweis is a former Illinois state senator and businessman, while Collins and Cawthorn are both former members of Congress.
With Donalds vacating the seat, the Aug. 18 Republican primary will play an important role in determining who represents one of Florida’s most heavily Republican congressional districts.
Florida Pundit readers can follow the latest polling, candidate developments and election coverage in our Florida Elections 2026 hub.
Schwartzel Picks Up Major Endorsement
The new poll arrives as Schwartzel continues building support from prominent Republicans.
House Majority Leader Steve Scalise endorsed Schwartzel on Friday, calling the Southwest Florida businessman an ally of President Donald Trump’s agenda.
Schwartzel has sought to distinguish himself from several rivals by emphasizing his Southwest Florida roots in a field that includes multiple candidates who previously held office or ran for office outside the state.
Lauf, meanwhile, has gained significant ground during the final weeks of the campaign and now appears to be competing directly with Schwartzel for the lead.
Her rise makes the remaining undecided voters particularly important.
Even after the undecided share dropped sharply from the June survey, approximately one in four likely Republican primary voters still had not selected a candidate in the latest poll.
Money and Outside Groups Shape the Race
The contest has also attracted substantial campaign spending and involvement from outside political organizations.
The conservative Club for Growth launched a roughly $1.1 million advertising effort targeting Collins during the closing weeks of the primary.
That spending adds another unpredictable element to a race already featuring several well-funded candidates.
Campaign finance reports also show millions of dollars flowing through the campaigns.
Oberweis has been among the race’s strongest fundraisers, while Schwartzel, Lauf and Collins have also raised significant sums.
Lauf has additionally benefited from support by Protect Freedom PAC, which recently aired an advertisement supporting her candidacy.
The ad drew national attention because it disclosed that it had been created in whole or in part using generative artificial intelligence and included artificial images depicting Lauf alongside Trump.
Final Days Could Decide FL-19
The latest Victory Insights numbers illustrate how dramatically the race has changed since early summer.
In June, no candidate reached 13% and more than half of likely Republican primary voters were undecided.
Now Schwartzel and Lauf are both approaching 20%, while the undecided share has been cut by more than half.
But with approximately 25% of voters still undecided, neither candidate has anything resembling a secure lead.
The final days of campaigning, advertising and voter turnout could determine whether Schwartzel can maintain his narrow advantage, Lauf can complete her rapid rise to the top of the field or another candidate can consolidate enough late support to break through.
Florida Republicans will choose their nominee Tuesday, Aug. 18.
The winner will advance to the Nov. 3 general election.
Souces
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