TALLAHASSEE, Fla. — Florida woke up Wednesday to a substantially altered political landscape after Tuesday’s primary produced a congressional upset, set the matchup for governor and delivered a surprise result in the Democratic U.S. Senate contest.
The biggest Florida story for The Florida Pundit is in Central Florida, where Ryan Elijah defeated two-term U.S. Rep. Cory Mills in the Republican primary for Florida’s 7th Congressional District.
But CD-7 was only one piece of an Election Night that clarified the November ballot and highlighted shifting dynamics inside both major parties.
Elijah Ousts Mills in CD-7
Elijah defeated Mills after a contentious Republican primary that drew national attention during its final days.
The Associated Press called the race for Elijah, while national coverage Wednesday focused on Mills becoming another House incumbent defeated in a 2026 primary. Axios reported that Mills’ loss followed months of scrutiny surrounding an ongoing House Ethics Committee investigation and weakening support among prominent Florida Republicans.
The result followed several warning signs for the incumbent.
Gov. Ron DeSantis publicly said last week that he did not support Mills, while President Donald Trump — who had previously endorsed the congressman — omitted Mills from a recent round of renewed endorsement announcements.
Elijah also entered Election Day with endorsements from U.S. Reps. Anna Paulina Luna and Mike Haridopolos, Seminole County Sheriff Dennis Lemma and Volusia County Sheriff Mike Chitwood.
The Florida Pundit: Florida Elections 2026
Donalds Wins Republican Nomination for Governor
Rep. Byron Donalds won the Republican nomination for governor Tuesday, advancing to a November matchup with former Republican congressman David Jolly, who captured the Democratic nomination.
Donalds won the Republican nomination with about 48% of the vote, while Lt. Gov. Jay Collins finished second with roughly a quarter of the vote.
The victory gives Donalds the opportunity to extend Republican control of the governor’s mansion after DeSantis leaves office because of term limits.
Jolly, meanwhile, will attempt to break one of the longest losing streaks in Florida politics: Democrats have not won a gubernatorial election in the state since 1994.
The matchup also creates an unusual general election between two former Republican members of Congress, with Jolly now running as a Democrat.
Angie Nixon Delivers Senate Upset
One of Tuesday night’s biggest surprises came in the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate.
State Rep. Angie Nixon defeated Alex Vindman despite Vindman’s financial advantages and national profile.
Nixon’s victory was one of the biggest upsets of Florida’s primary night, with the Jacksonville lawmaker overcoming a better-funded opponent who entered the race with a national profile.
Nixon now advances to face Republican Sen. Ashley Moody in November.
The result immediately gives national Democrats a difficult strategic question in a state that has moved substantially toward Republicans during recent election cycles.
Trump Endorsements Produce Mixed Results
Tuesday also produced a mixed record for Trump-backed candidates.
Donalds captured the Republican gubernatorial nomination, but Mills lost CD-7 and Catalina Lauf lost the Republican primary in Florida’s 19th Congressional District.
National coverage quickly focused on those divergent results.
That doesn’t diminish Trump’s influence in Florida Republican politics, but it demonstrates that his endorsement was not enough to overcome candidate-specific dynamics in every congressional primary.
Florida’s Congressional Map Takes Shape
Tuesday’s results also came against the backdrop of Florida’s newly redrawn congressional map.
Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz won her Democratic primary, while Rep. Jared Moskowitz also secured his party’s nomination as Florida’s newly redrawn congressional districts begin taking shape for November.
CD-7 will be among the races to watch.
Elijah advances as the Republican nominee in a district Democrats have targeted, but Mills’ defeat changes the character of that general-election contest.
What Happens Next
Tuesday’s results remain preliminary until Florida completes its canvassing and certification process.
Counties face an Aug. 21 deadline for unofficial returns, followed by additional canvassing deadlines. County official returns are due Aug. 26, and the state Elections Canvassing Commission is scheduled to certify official primary returns Aug. 27.
The political campaign, however, effectively moves to the general election immediately.
Election Day is Nov. 3.
For Republicans, the central question becomes whether Donalds can consolidate the party and maintain Florida’s recent Republican advantage.
For Democrats, Jolly and Nixon now become the statewide standard-bearers in races that will test whether the party can regain ground.
And in Central Florida, Ryan Elijah’s defeat of an incumbent member of Congress ensures that CD-7 will remain one of the state’s most closely watched political battlegrounds.
DOME — What Moves Florida Politics.
